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DeSantis Shows Surprising Strength Among Some CA Voters

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Of course, Governor Gavin Newsom wins over most California voters, but in a head-to-head match-up for president against Ron DeSantis, the Florida Governor shows surprising strength among independents, Latinos and voters 40-49.[I]

A large majority (85%) of California Republican voters prefer DeSantis who also garners eleven percent of Democrats. Newsom gets 83% of Democratic voters and ten percent of GOP voters. But DeSantis bests Newsom in his own state among voters 40-49. DeSantis also earns strong support from Latino voters among whom the governors are tied. DeSantis’ sizable support among No Party Preference (independent) voters denies Newsom a majority among that group.

“We have seen Newsom’s weak support among Latino voters before, most notably in his Recall Election,” explains Probolsky Research president Adam Probolsky. “California Latinos were among the hardest hit by Covid-19 lock-downs and school closures and likely blame the governor for his handling of the pandemic.”

“To be clear, there is virtually no chance a Republican candidate for president will win California in 2024″, said Probolsky. “But these numbers should be a warning sign for Newsom’s team as he branches out to other states trying to build a national coalition.”

Poll Methodology

From August 4 – 9, 2022, Probolsky Research conducted a statistically valid multi-mode, live interviewer telephone (landlines and mobile phones) and online (email and text to web) survey among 900 California likely 2022 General Election voters which yields a margin of error of +/-3.3%, and a confidence level of 95%. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (90%) or Spanish (10%). This survey was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.

[i] If the election for president were held today, for which candidate would you vote?

CA Voters Want Harris to Run for President

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The latest Probolsky Poll shows 44% of California voters want Senator Kamala Harris to run. You can view the Probolsky Poll presentation below.

Yes, want her to run 44%

No, don’t want her to run 38%

Unsure/Refused 18%

Watch pollster Adam Probolsky explain why voter support numbers for Senator Harris’ run aren’t higher:

“Having the support of your home state is not necessary for success, but it is certainly a key indicator of early momentum,” explained Adam Probolsky, pollster with Probolsky Research. “Harris’ strongest support comes from majorities of Asian, Black, Latino, and younger voters 18-39.”

A sizable majority (62%) of Democratic voters support Senator Harris running. Independent voters want her to run – 46% say yes, 33% say no. A large number of Republicans (81%) say they do not want her to run.

QUESTION: California’s U.S. Senator Kamala Harris recently announced that she is running for president in 2020. Do you want her to run for president?

The Probolsky Poll was conducted among 903 California likely 2020 Primary Election voters from January 22 – 27, 2019. The poll has a margin of error of +/-3.3% and a 95% level of confidence.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, non-profit and special interest clients.

The Probolsky poll has no affiliation with the campaign of Senator Kamala Harris or any other presidential campaign. These results are being released for public interest purposes only.

For more information about this Probolsky Poll call Adam Probolsky at 415-870-8150.

Here are the result:

© Probolsky Research