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Race for San Francisco Mayor Tied

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San Francisco uses ranked-choice voting. Ours is the only public poll that fully adheres to how the City’s Election Department counts the votes.

“Farrell’s strength this early in the election cycle is a very good sign for his campaign,” explained Adam Probolsky, president of Probolsky Research. “While tied for the lead, Breed has limited upside potential — she needs to hold on to every vote she has. Farrell has room to grow his support base from voters who are currently choosing other challenger candidates.”

Contact Adam Probolsky at 949-697-6726 for comments or additional background.

This poll was funded by the San Francisco Deputy Sheriff’s Association Political Action Committee.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan, Latina and woman-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.

Supervisor Ahsha Safaí Wins in a Head-to-Head Election Contest with Mayor Breed

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Our poll conducted this week found continued dissatisfaction with San Francisco Mayor London Breed, so much so that she would lose a re-election bid if the election was held today. “Even with limited name ID Supervisor Safaí beats Mayor Breed,” explained Adam Probolsky, the pollster who conducted the survey. “The Mayor is upside-down with voters. This is just one reason she is losing to a lesser-known candidate.”

Public safety and homelessness are the top concerns of voters. No other issue comes close.

Methodology

From June 16 to June 20, 2023, Probolsky Research conducted a survey am­­­ong likely San Francisco 2024 General Election voters. A total of 300 voters were surveyed yielding a margin of error of +/-5.8%, with a confidence level of 95%. Interviews were conducted online (67%) and via live telephone phone interview (33%) survey methods. Online participants were invited by email and text to web to access the survey by computer, tablet, or smartphone. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (97%), Cantonese (2%), and Spanish (1%). The poll was sponsored by the San Francisco Deputy Sheriff’s Association.

[1]QUESTIONS: What is the most important issue facing your community today? // Here is a list of several individuals and organizations. For each name, please indicate if you have heard of them and if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them. If you have no opinion or have never heard of them, that’s OK. // Do you think that San Francisco Mayor London breed deserves to be re-elected? // If the election for San Francisco Mayor were held today, for which candidate would you vote. Pick one.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, non-profit, and special interest clients. 

San Francisco Voters: Unhappy With Direction of the City and Mayor Breed

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In a recent poll, Probolsky Research found what most people might expect: voter dissatisfaction with the current direction of the City of San Francisco and the leadership of the mayor. “With nearly three in four voters unhappy about the direction of the City, it is no wonder that they think Mayor Breed is doing a poor job and that she is largely unpopular,” explained Adam Probolsky, the pollster who conducted the survey. “The chances of Mayor Breed winning another term in office are dim at the moment with a majority saying she doesn’t deserve to be re-elected.”

Looking beyond the top issue of concern, crime, voters also express dissatisfaction with how the mayor is handling the approval of new housing.

This poll was sponsored by the San Francisco Deputy Sheriff’s Association. 

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, non-profit, and special interest clients. 

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