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Supervisor Ahsha Safaí Wins in a Head-to-Head Election Contest with Mayor Breed

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Our poll conducted this week found continued dissatisfaction with San Francisco Mayor London Breed, so much so that she would lose a re-election bid if the election was held today. “Even with limited name ID Supervisor Safaí beats Mayor Breed,” explained Adam Probolsky, the pollster who conducted the survey. “The Mayor is upside-down with voters. This is just one reason she is losing to a lesser-known candidate.”

Public safety and homelessness are the top concerns of voters. No other issue comes close.

Methodology

From June 16 to June 20, 2023, Probolsky Research conducted a survey am­­­ong likely San Francisco 2024 General Election voters. A total of 300 voters were surveyed yielding a margin of error of +/-5.8%, with a confidence level of 95%. Interviews were conducted online (67%) and via live telephone phone interview (33%) survey methods. Online participants were invited by email and text to web to access the survey by computer, tablet, or smartphone. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (97%), Cantonese (2%), and Spanish (1%). The poll was sponsored by the San Francisco Deputy Sheriff’s Association.

[1]QUESTIONS: What is the most important issue facing your community today? // Here is a list of several individuals and organizations. For each name, please indicate if you have heard of them and if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them. If you have no opinion or have never heard of them, that’s OK. // Do you think that San Francisco Mayor London breed deserves to be re-elected? // If the election for San Francisco Mayor were held today, for which candidate would you vote. Pick one.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, non-profit, and special interest clients. 

San Francisco Voters: Unhappy With Direction of the City and Mayor Breed

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In a recent poll, Probolsky Research found what most people might expect: voter dissatisfaction with the current direction of the City of San Francisco and the leadership of the mayor. “With nearly three in four voters unhappy about the direction of the City, it is no wonder that they think Mayor Breed is doing a poor job and that she is largely unpopular,” explained Adam Probolsky, the pollster who conducted the survey. “The chances of Mayor Breed winning another term in office are dim at the moment with a majority saying she doesn’t deserve to be re-elected.”

Looking beyond the top issue of concern, crime, voters also express dissatisfaction with how the mayor is handling the approval of new housing.

This poll was sponsored by the San Francisco Deputy Sheriff’s Association. 

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, non-profit, and special interest clients. 

Voters Oppose Cuts to Solar Incentives

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Reports that California regulators are looking at cutting the incentives offered for installing solar in homes have sparked vocal opposition. We decided to test broad public opinion on the subject among California voters in our latest statewide poll and found a large majority of voters oppose the move that would make installing rooftop solar much less cost-effective in the state.

Probolsky Research president Adam Probolsky talks about the poll finding:

It appears that California regulators are out of touch with the voters on this issue. We have conditioned the public to conserve energy and look for greener alternatives. Cutting incentives for solar does not jive with the narrative of going green.

Voters across the spectrum Democratic, No Party Preference, and Republican oppose these incentive cuts. In fact, in every way of looking at the data, by age, gender, preferred language, and geography, voters align in their opposition to cutting solar incentives.

Regulators have a big challenge on their hands. They will have to backtrack on their plans or mount a huge effort to educate the public on why they need to make changes.

QUESTION: California regulators are proposing to cut the incentives for solar offered to homeowners, making it much less cost-effective for installing rooftop solar. Do you support or oppose cutting these incentives?

Every demographic group opposes the cutting the incentives. The charts below illustrate

Our multi-mode poll was conducted by telephone with live U.S.-based interviewers and online via email and text message invitations in English and Spanish among 900 California voters from January 29 – February 3, 2022. The sample was developed from the voter file compiled by the fifty-eight California elections officials. We matched the demographics of California voters.

Interviews were conducted with live U.S.-based interviewers by phone (17%) and online survey methods (83%). Phone participants were interviewed through landline (36%) and mobile (64%) calls. Online participants were invited by email (50%) and text message (50%) to access the survey by computer, tablet, or smart phone. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (85%) and Spanish (15%).

A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/-3.3% and a 95% confidence level. This survey question was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan Latina- and woman-owned research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients. The firm has offices in Newport Beach, San Francisco and Washington DC.

Effort to Eliminate Collective Bargaining Would Fail

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Public employee unions in California have little to worry about from the proposed ballot measure by businessman Tim Draper, that aims to eliminate collective bargaining. Fewer than 1/3 of voters support the proposal.

QUESTION: Here is a ballot initiative that may be facing California voters in 2022, “Eliminates collective bargaining for teachers, police officers, nurses, firefighters, and other public employees. Initiative Constitutional Amendment. Eliminates collective bargaining between state/local governments and labor organizations (including unions) representing teachers, police officers, nurses, firefighters, and other public employees about wages, benefits, hours, labor disputes, or other work conditions. Requires the Governor-appointed State Personnel Board to establish wages and benefits for state employees. Prohibits new or amended public-employee labor agreements, including extensions, but does not impact existing agreements. Authorizes state/local governments to provide up to 12 months of severance pay to employees who resign within three months of measure’s enactment.” If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on this measure? 

There is no demographic group that supports the takedown of public employee unions.

The full text of the proposed ballot initiative can be found on the Secretary of State’s website here.

Our multi-mode poll was conducted by telephone and online among 900 California voters from November 12 – 18, 2021. A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/-3.3% and a 95% confidence level. This survey question was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan Latina- and woman-owned research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.

Parents: It’s Time to Take Back Control of Our Schools (NEW POLL)

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Agree or disagree: It is time for parents to take back control of our schools.

A majority of California voters say it’s time for parents to “take back control of our schools.” This includes 54% of independent voters and 79% of Republicans. And while small in number, black voters also broadly agree.

A majority of parents, including 56% of those with school-age children say they want change.

The multi-mode poll was conducted by telephone and online among 900 California voters from November 12 – 18, 2021. A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/-3.3% and a 95% confidence level. This survey question was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan Latina- and woman-owned research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.

Society Will Completely Break Down in Our Lifetime says a Near Majority of California Voters

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QUESTION: Agree or disagree: I am worried that a complete breakdown in American society could happen in my lifetime where no one shows up to work, armed mobs roam the streets, and the government cannot continue to operate.

The results are even more dramatic among Republicans, 69% of whom say they are worried, and those fifty and older who say American society is on the brink. Black voters too.

Full majorities in Los Angeles County, the Central Valley and Northern California also believe we are doomed, as do a majority of those who prefer to speak Spanish.

The multi-mode poll was conducted by telephone and online among 900 California voters from November 12 – 18, 2021. A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/-3.3% and a 95% confidence level. This survey question was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan Latina- and woman-owned research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.

CA Voters Want Harris to Run for President

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The latest Probolsky Poll shows 44% of California voters want Senator Kamala Harris to run. You can view the Probolsky Poll presentation below.

Yes, want her to run 44%

No, don’t want her to run 38%

Unsure/Refused 18%

Watch pollster Adam Probolsky explain why voter support numbers for Senator Harris’ run aren’t higher:

“Having the support of your home state is not necessary for success, but it is certainly a key indicator of early momentum,” explained Adam Probolsky, pollster with Probolsky Research. “Harris’ strongest support comes from majorities of Asian, Black, Latino, and younger voters 18-39.”

A sizable majority (62%) of Democratic voters support Senator Harris running. Independent voters want her to run – 46% say yes, 33% say no. A large number of Republicans (81%) say they do not want her to run.

QUESTION: California’s U.S. Senator Kamala Harris recently announced that she is running for president in 2020. Do you want her to run for president?

The Probolsky Poll was conducted among 903 California likely 2020 Primary Election voters from January 22 – 27, 2019. The poll has a margin of error of +/-3.3% and a 95% level of confidence.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, non-profit and special interest clients.

The Probolsky poll has no affiliation with the campaign of Senator Kamala Harris or any other presidential campaign. These results are being released for public interest purposes only.

For more information about this Probolsky Poll call Adam Probolsky at 415-870-8150.

Here are the result: