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DeSantis Shows Surprising Strength Among Some CA Voters

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Of course, Governor Gavin Newsom wins over most California voters, but in a head-to-head match-up for president against Ron DeSantis, the Florida Governor shows surprising strength among independents, Latinos and voters 40-49.[I]

A large majority (85%) of California Republican voters prefer DeSantis who also garners eleven percent of Democrats. Newsom gets 83% of Democratic voters and ten percent of GOP voters. But DeSantis bests Newsom in his own state among voters 40-49. DeSantis also earns strong support from Latino voters among whom the governors are tied. DeSantis’ sizable support among No Party Preference (independent) voters denies Newsom a majority among that group.

“We have seen Newsom’s weak support among Latino voters before, most notably in his Recall Election,” explains Probolsky Research president Adam Probolsky. “California Latinos were among the hardest hit by Covid-19 lock-downs and school closures and likely blame the governor for his handling of the pandemic.”

“To be clear, there is virtually no chance a Republican candidate for president will win California in 2024″, said Probolsky. “But these numbers should be a warning sign for Newsom’s team as he branches out to other states trying to build a national coalition.”

Poll Methodology

From August 4 – 9, 2022, Probolsky Research conducted a statistically valid multi-mode, live interviewer telephone (landlines and mobile phones) and online (email and text to web) survey among 900 California likely 2022 General Election voters which yields a margin of error of +/-3.3%, and a confidence level of 95%. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (90%) or Spanish (10%). This survey was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.

[i] If the election for president were held today, for which candidate would you vote?

Very Few Want Biden to Run Again

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A sizable majority of California voters, across nearly every demographic, do not think President Biden should run for re-election.[i]

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Democratic voters are the only group that does not achieve a majority in thinking the President should not seek re-election. They do, however, by nearly a 2-to-1 margin, say he shouldn’t – 26% of them are unsure.

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“The results among No Party Preference (independent) voters should be a clear indicator to President Biden’s political team that he is in jeopardy of being a one-term president,” shares Probolsky Research President Adam Probolsky. “Even members of the President’s party are conflicted as to whether he should seek re-election, more than a quarter are unsure and more Democratic voters say he should step aside than say he should run.”

“With numbers like these, and without a clear Democratic alternative to President Biden, the Republican hopefuls will get more and more attention as 2024 nears, explains Probolsky.” “The question is not whether President Biden will step aside and let the Democrats battle for the nomination but will he do it in time for them to be competitive.”

Poll Methodology

From August 4 – 9, 2022, Probolsky Research conducted a statistically valid multi-mode live interviewer telephone and online (email and text to web) survey among 900 California likely 2022 General Election voters which yields a margin of error of +/-3.3%, and a confidence level of 95%. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (90%) or Spanish (10%). This survey was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.

[i] Do you think President Joe Biden should run for re-election?

Digital Politics Podcast: Adam Probolsky was the guest talking about – Building the Candidate Brand Using Public Opinion Data

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Listen here: https://digitalpoliticsradio.com/building-the-candidate-brand-using-public-opinion-data-with-adam-probolsky-president-probolsky-research

Proposition 1: Constitutional Amendment on Abortion Rights Winning with Super-Majority Support in CA

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This survey question was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan Latina- and woman-owned research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients. The firm has offices in Newport Beach, San Francisco and Washington DC.

Listen to Adam Probolsky on this recent episode of The Politics Guys podcast

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Adam Probolsky on Polling and Partisan Identification

Adam Probolsky on the Civic Tech Podcast

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Probolsky Research president Adam Probolsky joined Ryan Koch on the Civic Tech podcast to talk about how policy makers use opinion research.

Adam Probolsky on the PIO Podcast

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Robert Tornanene of the PIO Podcast interviewed Probolsky Research president Adam Probolsky on the role of research in government. Adam previously served as a volunteer with his local sheriff’s department as a PIO.

Public Says Diverse Hiring Policies Are Important

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“The health and longevity of any brand is determined by its people. We have always known that a diverse workforce is important,” said Alton Smith, Equity Officer for Probolsky Research. “This poll should be a wake-up call to any organization that lacks a comprehensive plan to build a widely diverse team.”

Media contact: Adam Probolsky, Probolsky Research president – 949-697-6726 mobile

Our multi-mode poll was conducted by telephone with live U.S.-based interviewers and online via email and text message invitations in English and Spanish among 900 California voters from January 29 – February 3, 2022. The sample was developed from the voter file compiled by the fifty-eight California elections officials.  We matched the demographics of California voters. 

Interviews were conducted with live U.S.-based interviewers by phone (17%) and online survey methods (83%). Phone participants were interviewed through landline (36%) and mobile (64%) calls. Online participants were invited by email (50%) and text message (50%) to access the survey by computer, tablet, or smart phone. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (85%) and Spanish (15%).

A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/-3.3% and a 95% confidence level. This survey question was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan Latina- and woman-owned research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients. The firm has offices in Newport Beach, San Francisco and Washington DC.

Most Voters Say Inflation is Hard on Them

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Over 70% of voters say that inflation is making it hard for them to make ends meet. That number is bigger for Black and Latino respondents. Republicans say it’s hard on them, more so than Democrats.

“With more than two-thirds of Californians experiencing significant impacts from inflation, they are interested in hearing from anyone offering a solution,” said Probolsky Research president Adam Probolsky. “There is no discounting the fact that people are hurting, but there is some evidence that media coverage of inflation is impacting public opinion about inflation.”

Our multi-mode poll was conducted by telephone with live U.S.-based interviewers and online via email and text message invitations in English and Spanish among 900 California voters from January 29 – February 3, 2022. The sample was developed from the voter file compiled by the fifty-eight California elections officials.  We matched the demographics of California voters. 

Interviews were conducted with live U.S.-based interviewers by phone (17%) and online survey methods (83%). Phone participants were interviewed through landline (36%) and mobile (64%) calls. Online participants were invited by email (50%) and text message (50%) to access the survey by computer, tablet, or smart phone. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (85%) and Spanish (15%).

A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/-3.3% and a 95% confidence level. This survey question was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan Latina- and woman-owned research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients. The firm has offices in Newport Beach, San Francisco and Washington DC.

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