Read the article here: https://sanjosespotlight.com/independent-poll-in-silicon-valleys-congressional-race-revealed/
Last week Adam Probolsky presented the results of a poll in California’s 16th Congressional District on the Texas Instruments campus in Santa Clara, CA. The poll was sponsored by local media outlet San José Spotlight which covers news, politics and business in Silicon Valley.
We know the candidate field is not set, but everyone wants to know who’s viable in the race for U.S. Senate in California. And the numbers show that Congressman Schiff and Congresswoman Porter both have a shot.
Rep. Adam Schiff (D) and businessman Steve Garvey (R) lead with about 21% of the vote for each of them. Even more voters (23%) are undecided.
“We don’t see a viable path for Rep. Barbara Lee,” said Adam Probolsky, the pollster who conducted the poll and president of Probolsky Research. “There is no chance that a Republican could win in the General Election, but for the moment, having a former Major League Baseball player in the mix looks promising for the GOP to have a chance at being on the ballot in November.”
This survey was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.
Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.
Of course, Governor Gavin Newsom wins over most California voters, but in a head-to-head match-up for president against Ron DeSantis, the Florida Governor shows surprising strength among independents, Latinos and voters 40-49.[I]
A large majority (85%) of California Republican voters prefer DeSantis who also garners eleven percent of Democrats. Newsom gets 83% of Democratic voters and ten percent of GOP voters. But DeSantis bests Newsom in his own state among voters 40-49. DeSantis also earns strong support from Latino voters among whom the governors are tied. DeSantis’ sizable support among No Party Preference (independent) voters denies Newsom a majority among that group.
“We have seen Newsom’s weak support among Latino voters before, most notably in his Recall Election,” explains Probolsky Research president Adam Probolsky. “California Latinos were among the hardest hit by Covid-19 lock-downs and school closures and likely blame the governor for his handling of the pandemic.”
“To be clear, there is virtually no chance a Republican candidate for president will win California in 2024″, said Probolsky. “But these numbers should be a warning sign for Newsom’s team as he branches out to other states trying to build a national coalition.”
Poll Methodology
From August 4 – 9, 2022, Probolsky Research conducted a statistically valid multi-mode, live interviewer telephone (landlines and mobile phones) and online (email and text to web) survey among 900 California likely 2022 General Election voters which yields a margin of error of +/-3.3%, and a confidence level of 95%. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (90%) or Spanish (10%). This survey was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.
Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.
[i] If the election for president were held today, for which candidate would you vote?
A sizable majority of California voters, across nearly every demographic, do not think President Biden should run for re-election.[i]
Democratic voters are the only group that does not achieve a majority in thinking the President should not seek re-election. They do, however, by nearly a 2-to-1 margin, say he shouldn’t – 26% of them are unsure.
“The results among No Party Preference (independent) voters should be a clear indicator to President Biden’s political team that he is in jeopardy of being a one-term president,” shares Probolsky Research President Adam Probolsky. “Even members of the President’s party are conflicted as to whether he should seek re-election, more than a quarter are unsure and more Democratic voters say he should step aside than say he should run.”
“With numbers like these, and without a clear Democratic alternative to President Biden, the Republican hopefuls will get more and more attention as 2024 nears, explains Probolsky.” “The question is not whether President Biden will step aside and let the Democrats battle for the nomination but will he do it in time for them to be competitive.”
Poll Methodology
From August 4 – 9, 2022, Probolsky Research conducted a statistically valid multi-mode live interviewer telephone and online (email and text to web) survey among 900 California likely 2022 General Election voters which yields a margin of error of +/-3.3%, and a confidence level of 95%. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (90%) or Spanish (10%). This survey was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.
Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.
[i] Do you think President Joe Biden should run for re-election?
“The health and longevity of any brand is determined by its people. We have always known that a diverse workforce is important,” said Alton Smith, Equity Officer for Probolsky Research. “This poll should be a wake-up call to any organization that lacks a comprehensive plan to build a widely diverse team.”
Media contact: Adam Probolsky, Probolsky Research president – 949-697-6726 mobile
Our multi-mode poll was conducted by telephone with live U.S.-based interviewers and online via email and text message invitations in English and Spanish among 900 California voters from January 29 – February 3, 2022. The sample was developed from the voter file compiled by the fifty-eight California elections officials. We matched the demographics of California voters.
Interviews were conducted with live U.S.-based interviewers by phone (17%) and online survey methods (83%). Phone participants were interviewed through landline (36%) and mobile (64%) calls. Online participants were invited by email (50%) and text message (50%) to access the survey by computer, tablet, or smart phone. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (85%) and Spanish (15%).
A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/-3.3% and a 95% confidence level. This survey question was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.
Probolsky Research is a non-partisan Latina- and woman-owned research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients. The firm has offices in Newport Beach, San Francisco and Washington DC.
Over 70% of voters say that inflation is making it hard for them to make ends meet. That number is bigger for Black and Latino respondents. Republicans say it’s hard on them, more so than Democrats.
“With more than two-thirds of Californians experiencing significant impacts from inflation, they are interested in hearing from anyone offering a solution,” said Probolsky Research president Adam Probolsky. “There is no discounting the fact that people are hurting, but there is some evidence that media coverage of inflation is impacting public opinion about inflation.”
Our multi-mode poll was conducted by telephone with live U.S.-based interviewers and online via email and text message invitations in English and Spanish among 900 California voters from January 29 – February 3, 2022. The sample was developed from the voter file compiled by the fifty-eight California elections officials. We matched the demographics of California voters.
Interviews were conducted with live U.S.-based interviewers by phone (17%) and online survey methods (83%). Phone participants were interviewed through landline (36%) and mobile (64%) calls. Online participants were invited by email (50%) and text message (50%) to access the survey by computer, tablet, or smart phone. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (85%) and Spanish (15%).
A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/-3.3% and a 95% confidence level. This survey question was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.
Probolsky Research is a non-partisan Latina- and woman-owned research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients. The firm has offices in Newport Beach, San Francisco and Washington DC.
Nearly half of voters polled (48%) blame government COVID-19 relief policies, including stimulus money and halts on evictions and foreclosures for the current worker shortage. The eviction and foreclosure moratorium expired in California in October 2021. Similarly, 45% cite remote work and freelance or gig economy job opportunities for the lack of workers.
“We are seeing Americans being frustrated with the worker shortage that has brought limited restaurant and store hours and closures, and what they consider to be poor service levels,” explained Probolsky Research president Adam Probolsky. “Democrats see these changes as a shift in how our economy works, while Republicans, and to a lesser degree, independent voters, blame government handouts and policies.”
Our multi-mode poll was conducted by telephone with live U.S.-based interviewers and online via email and text message invitations in English and Spanish among 900 California voters from January 29 – February 3, 2022. The sample was developed from the voter file compiled by the fifty-eight California elections officials. We matched the demographics of California voters.
Interviews were conducted with live U.S.-based interviewers by phone (17%) and online survey methods (83%). Phone participants were interviewed through landline (36%) and mobile (64%) calls. Online participants were invited by email (50%) and text message (50%) to access the survey by computer, tablet, or smart phone. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (85%) and Spanish (15%).
A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/-3.3% and a 95% confidence level. This survey question was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.
Probolsky Research is a non-partisan Latina- and woman-owned research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients. The firm has offices in Newport Beach, San Francisco and Washington DC.
Reports that California regulators are looking at cutting the incentives offered for installing solar in homes have sparked vocal opposition. We decided to test broad public opinion on the subject among California voters in our latest statewide poll and found a large majority of voters oppose the move that would make installing rooftop solar much less cost-effective in the state.
Probolsky Research president Adam Probolsky talks about the poll finding:
It appears that California regulators are out of touch with the voters on this issue. We have conditioned the public to conserve energy and look for greener alternatives. Cutting incentives for solar does not jive with the narrative of going green.
Voters across the spectrum Democratic, No Party Preference, and Republican oppose these incentive cuts. In fact, in every way of looking at the data, by age, gender, preferred language, and geography, voters align in their opposition to cutting solar incentives.
Regulators have a big challenge on their hands. They will have to backtrack on their plans or mount a huge effort to educate the public on why they need to make changes.
Every demographic group opposes the cutting the incentives. The charts below illustrate
Our multi-mode poll was conducted by telephone with live U.S.-based interviewers and online via email and text message invitations in English and Spanish among 900 California voters from January 29 – February 3, 2022. The sample was developed from the voter file compiled by the fifty-eight California elections officials. We matched the demographics of California voters.
Interviews were conducted with live U.S.-based interviewers by phone (17%) and online survey methods (83%). Phone participants were interviewed through landline (36%) and mobile (64%) calls. Online participants were invited by email (50%) and text message (50%) to access the survey by computer, tablet, or smart phone. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (85%) and Spanish (15%).
A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/-3.3% and a 95% confidence level. This survey question was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.
Probolsky Research is a non-partisan Latina- and woman-owned research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients. The firm has offices in Newport Beach, San Francisco and Washington DC.
Public employee unions in California have little to worry about from the proposed ballot measure by businessman Tim Draper, that aims to eliminate collective bargaining. Fewer than 1/3 of voters support the proposal.
There is no demographic group that supports the takedown of public employee unions.
The full text of the proposed ballot initiative can be found on the Secretary of State’s website here.
Our multi-mode poll was conducted by telephone and online among 900 California voters from November 12 – 18, 2021. A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/-3.3% and a 95% confidence level. This survey question was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.
Probolsky Research is a non-partisan Latina- and woman-owned research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.
We included the race for Insurance Commissioner on our latest statewide poll. We conducted this poll and present these results for public interest purposes. We have no client in this race.
Poizner leads Lara by 6%, but that number is dwarfed by the 39% of voters who say they are unsure.
