Perdue and Warnock Lead by the Slimmest of Margins in Georgia Senate Runoff Election

Reconnect Research, in partnership with Probolsky Research conducted a redirected inbound call sampling (RICS), English and Spanish language telephone survey among likely Georgia Senate Runoff Election voters.

Our poll finds Republican Senator Perdue with a 1% point lead over Democratic challenger Ossoff, and Democratic challenger Warnock with a 1% lead over Republican Senator Leoffler. There are 15% undecided in both races.

“With the sizable undecided voters, either candidate could win in these two seats,” explained pollster Adam Probolsky. “We found it interesting that both Democratic challengers had the support from 8% of Republican voters. The Republican candidates pull about half that percentage of Democratic voters.”

The poll was conducted for public interest, neither Reconnect Research nor Probolsky Research has a client in the race. Both firms are non-partisan.

Media contact: Adam Probolsky – Probolsky Research – (949) 697-6726 or email: adamp@probolskyresearch.com

California Voters Rejecting Proposition 18 Which Would Lower Voting Age

The Constitutional Amendment to lower the voting age in California to 17 for Primary and Special Elections, if the teenagers will turn 18 by the next General Election, is losing in our recent statewide poll of likely voters.

A majority of 52% say they will, or have already voted no. Large majorities of Republicans and voters 40 and older oppose the proposition. As do black and Asian voters.

There are also serious privacy concerns with minors voting – their contact information would become available to campaigns to communicate with them. If minors are given the right to vote, there would likely need to be changes to privacy legislation and a shift in what parents will find acceptable in marketing to their children.

 

 

Probolsky Research is Latina and woman owned – conducting market and opinion research on behalf of corporate, election, non-profit, and special interest clients.

These results are being released for public interest – we do not have a client on this matter.

 

 

Press-Enterprise Profile of Adam Probolsky: Polls are a bridge between the public and policymakers

 

TikTok Usage More Than Doubles Among Young U.S. Adults Nationally, Ban Was Opposed by Majority, New Survey Finds

TikTok Has Had Huge Growth in Usage, Threatened Ban Was Opposed by Majority of Young U.S. Adults

Why didn’t Trump go through with the TikTok ban? Maybe because he knows how popular it is and that it could have motivated some voters to action against him in November.

Our survey conducted this weekend, for public interest, found a majority of young adults in the U.S. oppose the Trump Administration’s threatened ban of the popular TikTok app. And 62% say they use the app, a huge uptick in usage among this demographic in just six months.

When asked who they would have blamed for the ban, 55% say the president.

“We knew TikTok was popular, but having 62% of the 18-24 market is huge. This represents a more than doubling in marketshare since March according to data reported by Comscore earlier this year,” explained Adam Probolsky, pollster and company president. “President Trump already has limited support among younger voters, but their history of turning out to vote is sketchy at best. The ban could have been a motivating factor for younger voters to turn in their vote-by-mail ballots or go to the polls, which could have had huge political implications. We also see evidence from other research that women of all ages are opposed to the ban.”

Big TikTok Usage Among Young U.S. Adults

Majority: Opposed Ban

 

Most Blamed Trump

Questions asked: Do you use TikTok? Do you support or oppose the ban on TikTok in the U.S.? Who do you blame for the U.S. ban on TikTok?

Methodology: From September 18 – 20, 2020 Probolsky Research conducted an online national survey of 1,000 young U.S. adults 18-24 using panel respondents representative demographically and geographically of this population. The margin of error is +/-3.1%.

We have no client on this matter, and we conducted this research and are releasing the results for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan Latina and woman-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients. The firm has offices in Newport Beach and San Francisco, CA, and Washington DC.

Media inquiries to Adam Probolsky, Pollster / 949-697-6726 mobile / adamp@probolskyresearch.com

NEW POLL: CA Proposition 15

Our new California statewide poll finds that Prop. 15 is losing by 8 points and that there are a limited number of voters who are still undecided on the proposition.

“The voter contact part of the campaign has already started. With so few voters unsure about their vote, the yes side will need to move voters from their current position to win,” explains Adam Probolsky, pollster with the non-partisan Probolsky Research. “It is not surprising that Republican voters oppose the measure, but so do other broader demographics like Asians and Latinos.”

We are releasing these poll results for public interest. We do not have a client on this proposition.

Contact Adam Probolsky – 949-697-6726 for more information.

WEBINAR: How to Use Opinion Research in Your Advocacy Efforts

We were proud to partner with Campaigns & Elections Advocacy Insider on this webinar. We had a great discussion on how to use polling and other opinion research in your lobbying efforts. You can click on the video below or find the video at this link: https://www.campaignsandelections.com/videos/how-to-use-research-to-optimize-advocacy-campaigns?fbclid=IwAR01qzVssympELChFxuoNzONE0frHT_xJHkjlBLk7U6b1cyYdX8k9e25zdo

Probolsky Research is a Latina and woman-owned non-partisan research firm, conducting polls, focus groups and other market and opinion research for corporate, election, government and non-profit clients.

 

Local School Bonds Have Majority Support

The generic test for local school bonds shows majority support among likely California voters.

“We conducted this poll in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic and voters are still expressing support for funding local schools through school bonds,” explained Adam Probolsky, pollster and president of Probolsky Research. “We did not put a dollar amount in the question which could change the results, favorably or negatively, but voters are clearly open to school bonds, even in the face of the pandemic.”

  • The biggest opposition comes from older, Republican, and white voters.
  • The biggest support comes from younger, Democratic, and non-white voters.
  • Parts of the state, like Southern California (outside of Los Angeles), will find passing local school bonds more challenging, while voters in Los Angeles and Bay Area school districts are more likely to support funding for local schools.

 

We are releasing these poll results for public interest. We do not have a client on this matter.

Probolsky Research is a Latina and woman-owned, non-partisan market and opinion research firm.

4 Reasons Not to Pause Research During the Coronavirus Crisis

https://www.campaignsandelections.com/campaign-insider/4-reasons-not-to-pause-research-during-the-coronavirus-crisis

It’s easy to find excuses not to poll or conduct focus groups.

Whether it’s Super Bowl Sunday or the Thursday before President’s Day weekend, there’s always someone on the team who thinks the timing isn’t right to survey voters. While these opinions might have merit, there’s rarely a reason to wholesale pause consumer or voter research for any extended period of time.

Even in the face of this current national crisis, we’re polling and conducting online focus groups with success. In fact, with so many people at home looking for things to do, we’re seeing an uptick in respondents’ interest and enthusiasm.

From where we sit, here’s how polling looks during the coronavirus pandemic:

Campaigns and businesses need polling right now.

Organizations need to understand the nuances of this crisis and the proper way to communicate with each audience segment. Last month, a Pew Survey found differences in how Americans assessed coronavirus risks and changed behavior based on age, political party, and state of residence.

Even when stay-at-home orders are officially lifted, we’re likely to see lingering effects based on the intensity of these early initial attitudes. Polling is the only proven way to inform your changing tactics and develop tailored messages.

Voters are answering their mobile phones and survey questions online.

Our survey response rates are up since most Americans have been “safer at home.” Participation in online focus groups is through the roof. Americans are craving social interaction and the chance to share their opinions with someone other than their dog and the echo chamber of their social media feed. The image you might have conjured in your head of people cowering in fear in their bathtub isn’t real.

If you think lonely people eager to respond to your poll will bias the results, I can assure you that boredom and loneliness have always been major motivators for survey takers – in good times and crises alike.

People will talk politics during this crisis.

We are Americans. We have three 24/7 news channels mostly dedicated to talking about politics. People who live in Arizona subscribe to the New York Times and people who live in Florida subscribe to the Washington Post. We have even somehow created a hyper-political discussion around a prescription medication that might treat a virus. Trust me, people want to talk about politics.

We’re also seeing partisan differences in how people are responding to the crisis. For example, the Pew Survey found that Republicans are more likely than Democrats to feel comfortable visiting with a friend or going grocery shopping during the crisis.

Things are changing quickly, but winging it is never a good idea.

During the Democratic presidential primary, the campaigns didn’t stop polling when a competitor dropped out. They got right back into the field with another survey to figure out how to capture undecided voters.

Unfortunately, there’s also a real possibility that the coronavirus has fundamentally altered our way of life for the foreseeable future. The 1918 Spanish flu experienced three waves, with the second wave deadlier than the first. Absent a vaccine or cure, many Americans will be wary to rush out to ball games, or family reunions.

Political campaigns, industry and government agencies need to understand how to effectively communicate during this uncertainty. For associations or down-ballot campaigns with limited research budgets, the fundamental data from a poll will remain valuable for months. It’s better to obtain that critical data now and put it to work in a way that can help guide an organization through these uncertain times.

Adam Probolsky is president of Probolsky Research, a Latina- and woman-owned independent elections and public policy research firm.

How Can Brands Build Trust During this Crisis?

We found one way for brands to build trust during the Covid-19 crisis: offer free hand sanitizer. Here are the results from our recent national survey.

We are operating at full capacity – most staff working remotely

Probolsky Research continues to conduct important market and opinion research projects as our clients and the world deal with the impacts of COVID-19.

You can reach us at any of our office phone numbers, by email, or on our mobile phones, anytime.

Most of our staff is working from home which is easy for us considering nearly all our work is by phone or online using our highly secure encrypted network.

We are using Zoom for virtual meetings and are happy to meet anytime.

We are here for you.

-Adam Probolsky, President
mobile: 949-697-6726
email: adamp@probolskyresearch.com