Data informed communications and outreach trends for 2023 and beyond

As a public opinion and market research firm, our work takes us all over the country, giving us the benefit of seeing the latest tactics of public agency communicators. Let’s dive into the trends we are seeing.

Harnessing the Power of ChatGPT, Bing Chat (and maybe Bard)
When Brie Ann Colman, Comms Specialist with Placer County Water Agency, recently posted on the CAPIO Facebook group for anyone who has used ChatGPT in their work, I reached out to talk about how we’ve adopted its use. I told her I was sure that Jesse Saich with El Dorado Irrigation District was already using it too. I hadn’t spoken with Jesse about it, but he is an innovator. Reaching out to him later, I found out I was right.

Our clients find that ChatGPT yields about 70% of the imaginative and descriptive quality that outreach professionals might be looking for. It’s then your job to take it the other 30% of the way. That’s a pretty impressive productivity improvement.

Here is what we have seen our clients do with ChatGPT:

Draft press releases and standby statements with minimal details input
-Create Q&As and FAQs
-Create social media calendars, for a whole month at a time – don’t forget to ask the AI to give you recommendations for visuals to include
-Maximizing Impact with Online Advertising

We see the use of hyper-targeted online ads regardless of budget, whether it’s $500 or $500,000. The flexibility you get with online platforms is unbeatable in terms of reach.

Here is how we see the public sector using targeted online ads:

Set clear goals: Establish measurable objectives for your advertising campaign, like increasing website traffic, raising awareness of a specific initiative or driving attendance to a community event. By setting clear goals, you can better allocate your budget and track the effectiveness of your campaign. Most importantly, the data proves they work so you get buy-in for more spend next time.

Target your audience: Google and Facebook Ads offer sophisticated targeting options that allow you to reach specific demographics, locations, interests or behaviors. This ensures that your ads are seen by the most relevant audience, increasing the likelihood of engagement and reducing wasted ad spend. Using unique audiences (lists that you upload) is important too. If you don’t know how to get a complete list of your constituents, ask your favorite marketing firm or pollster. We can get it within minutes, for pennies per record.

Test and optimize: To maximize your return on investment (ROI), continually test different ad creatives, targeting options and bidding strategies. Use platform analytics tools to identify which elements are driving the best results and refine your approach accordingly. This iterative process allows you to optimize your campaign’s performance and ensure that you’re making the most of your budget.

Leverage organic content: In addition to paid advertising, make sure to maintain a strong presence on social media through organic content. This not only helps to build trust and credibility with your audience but can also amplify the reach and impact of your paid campaigns. Don’t worry if you get limited engagement. When a crisis hits, your long posting history will be an important resource for the media and the public.

Embracing Video: Competing in a Visually-Driven World
Video is how we consume information now. The ubiquitous use of TikTok, Instagram Reels and YouTube means you are not going to be seen unless you play the game many others are already in. You need up-to-date video content that is made for each platform. To keep up, governments need to either develop strong creative, video editing and production skills in-house or bring in outside talent to consult.

To excel in video content creation, consider the following strategies:

Embrace storytelling: Video offers a unique opportunity to tell captivating stories that resonate with your audience. Use video to showcase the people, places and projects that make your community special. Focus on telling stories that inspire, educate or entertain.

Prioritize quality: While it’s true that you’re competing with a vast array of content, it’s crucial not to sacrifice quality for quantity. Invest in the equipment, software and training to ensure that your videos look and sound good (they don’t need to be “pro”). This includes cameras, microphones, lighting and editing software.

Experiment with formats: There’s no one-size-fits-all approach to video content. Explore different formats and styles, like short-form videos for TikTok and Instagram Reels, long-form content for YouTube or Facebook or live-streaming events and meetings. By diversifying your video offerings, you can appeal to a broader range of audience preferences and maximize engagement.
Be authentic: Don’t strive for perfect. Save the polished content or Hollywood. It’s more important to maintain an authentic voice that reflects your organization’s values and personality. Let your community see the human side of your work that will engender genuine connection.

Invest in talent: If your team lacks the skills or resources to produce quality video content, consider partnering with external consultants or hiring dedicated staff members with creative and video production expertise. Just like outreach based on polling makes your dollars go further, having the right talent to create compelling content is going to be the most efficient use of your resources.

Data-Driven Storytelling: Turning Numbers into Narratives
Translating data into compelling stories is our favorite work because we get to roll up our sleeves with creative communicators and marketers.

Here is what we think makes the process go well:

A statistically valid poll will help you determine the most relatable messages by translating numbers to real-world experiences, helping your audience understand its relevance in their lives. Instead of a broad conservation message, such as “use less water,”a poll can identify a specific, relevant metric that your community can connect to, such as: “Fixing one small outdoor leak can save 3,000 gallons a year, or something like 180 showers!”

Use visualizations: Present information in visually appealing and easy-to-understand formats,. It could be charts, graphs or maps–but all work together to capture your audience’s attention. Focus groups are great ways to identify the best visuals for your audience.

Keep it simple: Go for the highest efficiency messages. It is easy for communicators to want to provide all possible details. But keep in mind, we get very limited attention from our audience. Instead, go bold.

Breaking Through the Noise on a Budget

Public agencies face a unique challenge: your public is highly distracted. Unlike consumer brands with seemingly limitless budgets, public agencies have limited resources to allocate to communications efforts. But this doesn’t mean you can’t find ways to break through the advertising and messaging noise and create a meaningful connection with your community.

By leveraging the power of your agency, your physical assets and the people who make your organization function, you can create great material. Here is some of what we are seeing from agencies making the most of their resources:

Showcase your assets: Highlight the interesting facilities, programs, trails, open spaces and other unique aspects of your agency in your content. By showcasing these assets, you can generate curiosity and interest while educating the public about the important work you do.

Go behind the scenes: Pull back the curtain on government operations by offering a glimpse into the day-to-day workings of your organization. This might involve sharing videos of complex machinery in action, touring facilities, or highlighting how “Ralph in accounting makes sure all the bills get paid on time”. You might think watching a traffic engineer doing a plan check is boring, but since the public never gets to see it, they might find it interesting.

Humanize your agency: Introduce the public to the people behind the counter at City Hall, or those who keep your parks clean and your streets safe. By putting a human face to your agency, you can foster stronger connections with your community and build trust in your organization. Our research shows that the hard hat and pocket protector-wearing crowd are much more relatable than the suites. Put a wide variety of your team out front.

What did I miss? I’d love to hear from you.

By Adam Probolsky of Probolsky Research. Adam Probolsky is a pollster and data scientist with the woman and Latina-owned Probolsky Research. Find Adam on Twitter at @AdamProbolsky.

PRessing on in Public Relations Podcast – Guest Appearance by Adam Probolsky

Adam Probolsky went deep on the opinion/market research – public relations/outreach nexus during the latest episode of PRessing on in Public Relations Podcast with Liselle DeGrave and Rachel McGuire.

Listen here: https://www.pressingonpodcast.com/podcast/episode/2bacf575/data-data-data-benchmarking-for-strategic-success

A Seat At The Table podcast – Adam Probolsky featured

Local Government Insights Podcast Features Adam Probolsky

Firm president, Adam Probolsky joined the Local Government Insights podcast, episode 27, to talk about how government uses public opinion research in the process of making public policy.

Listen here:

Bass Leads in Race for Los Angeles Mayor

UPDATE: The Los Angeles Times wrote about our poll. Read the coverage here: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-10-02/september-mayoral-poll

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“Rick Caruso has a sizable lead of more than 10% among Latino voters and an even bigger lead among Spanish speakers,” said Adam Probolsky, pollster and data scientist.

“Caruso has a massive lead among Republican voters and outperforms Bass among No Party Preference (independent) voters. But Democratic voters will represent over 65% of turnout in November. And Democrats are supporting Bass.”

Adam Probolsky explained, “Bass or Caruso can still win this race. But Bass’ lead among white voters, the largest constituency, means she will be hard to beat.”

Poll Methodology

From September 19 – 25, 2022, Probolsky Research conducted a statistically valid multi-mode, live interviewer telephone (landlines and mobile phones) and online (email and text to web) poll among 500 City of Los Angeles likely 2022 General Election voters which yields a margin of error of +/-4.5%, and a confidence level of 95%. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (87%), Spanish (12%) or Korean (1%).

This poll was sponsored by Klink Campaigns and the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.

Newsweek Covers Probolsky Research Polling

What Polls Say About Newsom vs. DeSantis in Hypothetical 2024 Matchup

BY FATMA KHALED ON 9/17/22 AT 4:32 PM EDT

https://www.newsweek.com/what-polls-say-about-newsom-vs-desantis-hypothetical-2024-matchup-1743936

Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would be more popular among independent and Latino voters than Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom if they ever decide to run in the 2024 presidential election, according to recent polls.

Speculation about DeSantis’ and Newsom’s 2024 presidential ambitions has grown in recent months. On Friday, Newsom took aim at DeSantis and challenged the GOP governor to a debate.

“Hey@GovRonDeSantis, clearly you’re struggling, distracted, and busy playing politics with people’s lives. Since you have only one overriding need — attention –let’s take this up & debate. I’ll bring my hair gel. You bring your hairspray. Name the time before Election Day.@CNN,” the California governor wrote on Twitter, further fueling speculation regarding his 2024 ambitions.

In a hypothetical matchup, DeSantis beats Newsom in California where 85 percent of the state’s Republican voters would choose the Florida governor, who is also taking the lead among independents, Latinos and voters who are between 40 to 49 years old, according to a poll released by Probolsky Research on August 19 that surveyed 900 likely California voters with a margin of error of 3.3 percent.

“We have seen Newsom’s weak support among Latino voters before, most notably in his Recall Election,” said Adam Probolsky, the Probolsky Research president. “California Latinos were among the hardest hit by Covid-19 lock-downs and school closures and likely blame the governor for his handling of the pandemic.”

Though DeSantis and Newsom haven’t announced plans to run in 2024, they both appear to be positioning themselves for potentially taking part in the race. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have also hinted that they will run again in 2024.

The Probolsky Research poll also showed that DeSantis is also popular among independent voters, denying Newsom majority support among that group. “To be clear, there is virtually no chance a Republican candidate for president will win California in 2024,″ Probolsky added. “But these numbers should be a warning sign for Newsom’s team as he branches out to other states trying to build a national coalition.”

In a poll by Yahoo News that was conducted between June 24 and June 27, 1,630 respondents were asked whether they would vote for Newsom or DeSantis if the 2024 elections were held today.

A total of 39 percent of respondents said they would vote for Newsom, compared to 36 percent who would choose DeSantis. Still, the Florida governor is more popular among independent voters as 38 percent of them said they would vote for him in a hypothetical presidential race as opposed to 33 percent of independent voters who would vote for Newsom.

Favorability among state residents is also something accounted for when comparing the Republican and the Democratic governors’ chances in a hypothetical matchup.

Last month, a poll by the Florida Chamber of Commerce showed that 54 percent of Florida voters approve of DeSantis’ performance as governor, with 88 percent of Republicans and 52 percent of NPAs (No Party Affiliation) approving of his job. Additionally, 65 percent of Hispanic voters approve of his performance compared to 32 percent who disapprove. The poll was conducted among 608 respondents statewide with a margin error of 4 percent.

Meanwhile, a Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released on August 23 showed that 53 percent of California voters approve of Newsom’s performance as governor, compared to 42 percent who disapprove. This is a slight improvement compared to the last poll released in February, asking voters about his job performance. The poll was conducted among 9,254 California registered voters with a sampling error of around 2 percentage points. Newsweek reached out to DeSantis’ office for comment.

WATCH: Adam Probolsky Discusses Opinion Research on Public Policy on SacTown Talks

Marin Voice: Newsom should step in before CPUC halts beneficial rooftop solar progress (Probolsky Research poll cited)

A 2022 poll of 900 voters by Probolsky Research of Newport Beach found that 64% opposed the CPUC proposal while 20% were in favor.

“It appears that California regulators are out of touch with the voters on this issue,” Adam Probolsky said in the report. “Voters across the spectrum – Democrats, no-party preference and Republicans oppose these incentive cuts. In fact, in every way of looking at the data, by age, gender, preferred language and geography, voters align in their opposition to cutting solar incentives.”

https://www.marinij.com/2022/08/25/marin-voice-newsom-should-step-in-before-cpuc-halts-beneficial-rooftop-solar-progress/amp/

DeSantis Shows Surprising Strength Among Some CA Voters

Of course, Governor Gavin Newsom wins over most California voters, but in a head-to-head match-up for president against Ron DeSantis, the Florida Governor shows surprising strength among independents, Latinos and voters 40-49.[I]

A large majority (85%) of California Republican voters prefer DeSantis who also garners eleven percent of Democrats. Newsom gets 83% of Democratic voters and ten percent of GOP voters. But DeSantis bests Newsom in his own state among voters 40-49. DeSantis also earns strong support from Latino voters among whom the governors are tied. DeSantis’ sizable support among No Party Preference (independent) voters denies Newsom a majority among that group.

“We have seen Newsom’s weak support among Latino voters before, most notably in his Recall Election,” explains Probolsky Research president Adam Probolsky. “California Latinos were among the hardest hit by Covid-19 lock-downs and school closures and likely blame the governor for his handling of the pandemic.”

“To be clear, there is virtually no chance a Republican candidate for president will win California in 2024″, said Probolsky. “But these numbers should be a warning sign for Newsom’s team as he branches out to other states trying to build a national coalition.”

Poll Methodology

From August 4 – 9, 2022, Probolsky Research conducted a statistically valid multi-mode, live interviewer telephone (landlines and mobile phones) and online (email and text to web) survey among 900 California likely 2022 General Election voters which yields a margin of error of +/-3.3%, and a confidence level of 95%. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (90%) or Spanish (10%). This survey was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.


[i] If the election for president were held today, for which candidate would you vote?

Very Few Want Biden to Run Again

A sizable majority of California voters, across nearly every demographic, do not think President Biden should run for re-election.[i]

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Democratic voters are the only group that does not achieve a majority in thinking the President should not seek re-election. They do, however, by nearly a 2-to-1 margin, say he shouldn’t – 26% of them are unsure.

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“The results among No Party Preference (independent) voters should be a clear indicator to President Biden’s political team that he is in jeopardy of being a one-term president,” shares Probolsky Research President Adam Probolsky. “Even members of the President’s party are conflicted as to whether he should seek re-election, more than a quarter are unsure and more Democratic voters say he should step aside than say he should run.”

“With numbers like these, and without a clear Democratic alternative to President Biden, the Republican hopefuls will get more and more attention as 2024 nears, explains Probolsky.” “The question is not whether President Biden will step aside and let the Democrats battle for the nomination but will he do it in time for them to be competitive.”

Poll Methodology

From August 4 – 9, 2022, Probolsky Research conducted a statistically valid multi-mode live interviewer telephone and online (email and text to web) survey among 900 California likely 2022 General Election voters which yields a margin of error of +/-3.3%, and a confidence level of 95%. Respondents in all modes chose their preferred language, English (90%) or Spanish (10%). This survey was not sponsored by a third party, the results are being released for public interest.

Probolsky Research is a non-partisan woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm with corporate, election, government, and non-profit clients.


[i] Do you think President Joe Biden should run for re-election?